Scott Minerd says Bitcoin prices will drop to $ 8K, but technical analysis says otherwise

Scott Minerd says Bitcoin prices will drop to $ 8K, but technical analysis says otherwise – Mail Bonus

Bitcoin (BTC) is forecast to fall more than 70% to $ 8,000, according to Guggenheim CEO Scott Minerd. This is not the first time he has made a bearish call, and he has, before, made bullish calls as well. However, recent Minerd calls have taken place just before a major turnaround.

It should be noted that Mr. Minerd, if concluded from previous comments, is a Bitcoin bull and has a long forecast for the largest digital asset in the six-digit range. However, if traders and investors used his comments as an indication of market sentiment, other affirmative evidence must be used.

Long-term oscillators value support bullish reversal

Weekly and monthly RSI (relative strength index) and composite index show that extremes have been met. These extremes do not predict or ensure a reversal. However, they warn that the momentum of further movement reduction is likely to be significantly limited or eliminated.

BTC / USD weekly relative strength index (RSI) (Coinbase) Source: TradingView

The weekly RSI remains in the bull market, although it falls below both the 50 and 40 volatility levels – until it reaches 30, the bull market’s RSI settings remain. Currently, 33, this weekly RSI level is the lowest since the week of December 10, 2018, and just below the COVID-19 collapse low in March 2020, 33.48.

Likewise, the weekly composite index reading for Bitcoin is extreme. It is currently at its lowest level since the week of February 8, 2018. The current level of the weekly composite index has historically been a strong indicator that it is likely to fluctuate low.

BTC / USD weekly composite index (Coinbase) Source: TradingView

The black vertical lines identify the latest historical lows in the weekly Bitcoin composite index.

Graphing patterns on oscillators can help identify upcoming reversals

The use of basic image patterns such as rectangles and triangles on Japanese candlesticks or American bar charts c is not limited to the price list only. For example, the great expert and trader Connie Brown (author of the composite index) impresses analysts and traders to observe the chart patterns in oscillators.

BTC / USD Monthly (RSI) (Coinbase) Source: TradingView

The falling wedge pattern on the monthly RSI meets all the requirements to confirm that pattern: five touches of trend lines. It should be noted that the monthly RSI for Bitcoin, like the weekly RSI, remains in a bull market situation and the current RSI is just below the first volatility level of 50.

Another major development with Bitcon oscillators is the usual bullish difference between the monthly RSI and the monthly composite index. The composite index, created by Connie Brown, is actually RSI by momentum calculation – it captures movements that RSI cannot.

Note the structure of the lines on the monthly RSI based on the composite index. RSI shows lower lows but the composite index shows higher lows. There is a regular bullish difference.

BTC / USD Monthly Coinbase Source: TradingView

The usual bullish difference is usually measured between a price and an oscillator, but it is also possible to measure between two oscillators. The usual bullish difference is a warning sign that the current downward trend is likely to face a higher correction or the start of a new uptrend.

Bitcoin pricing continues to be associated with equities

Due to the continuing correlation between Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market with equities, special attention should be paid this week, especially on Thursday (May 26, 2022).

Economists and Wall Street continued to worry about economic growth. Following Target’s dismal quarterly report (NYSE: TGT) last week, everyone’s eyes are focused on other major retailers announcing revenue on May 26: Macy’s (NYSE: M), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) and Dollar General (NYSE: DG). are all on deck May 26th.

However, given that a large portion of the stock market is below market, it is likely that any negative news from retail stocks or the US Federal Reserve will be considered “priced”. The volume of NASDAQ’s technical strength (NASDAQ: QQQ) has increased, as has inflows into Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

Thus, if stocks jump, Bitcoin will jump. The possibility of an increase for Bitcoin is likely to be limited to an important psychological and 2022 tie-point to $ 40,000.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading business involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.